{"id":65,"date":"2026-02-11T17:54:43","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T17:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/?p=65"},"modified":"2026-02-11T20:33:28","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T20:33:28","slug":"the-dinosaur-issue-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/?p=65","title":{"rendered":"The Dinosaur – Issue 9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\ud83e\udd95 The Dinosaur<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Issue 9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Old-Fashioned Stock-Picking for Modern Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

February 6, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the Editor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PLEASE NOTE: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Any discussions or information shared in this conversation about stocks or potential trades are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Before making investment decisions, individuals are responsible for their own research and consulting with a qualified financial advisor.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. We, or our affiliates, may have positions in the stocks mentioned, potentially influencing our opinion.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. You should not buy equities unless you are prepared to sustain a total loss of the money you have invested plus any commission or other transaction charges.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    On February 2, 1985, my friend and fellow gambling junkie Howard G. tracked me down at the apartment of my Syracuse girlfriend to tell me not to ask questions and to bet the house on Southern Mississippi +9 points versus Tulane in men\u2019s basketball that evening. I did as advised and won the bet when Tulane won the game by one point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Two weeks later came another similar call and another winning bet \u2014 this time on Memphis State, again versus Tulane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Months later the scandal hit the news. Tulane star John \u201cHot Rod\u201d Williams was indicted, along with members of a certain Tulane fraternity that had allegedly sent frat members or pledges to Las Vegas with something like $80,000 in cash to place bets against their own team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The irony is that I\u2019d been telling friends since 1980 that \u201cwhere there\u2019s gambling, there\u2019s fixing,\u201d and yet some of them still rib me to this very day \u2014 despite everything since: the 2002 Sacramento Kings, the 2019 Saints\u2013Rams, and oh so many NBA and NFL games with suspicious calls and whistles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The old-fashioned point shaving \u2014 players, referees, and the mob \u2014 has seemingly evolved into something more sophisticated, possibly even including league-level collusion with gambling houses. Kinda sad. But whatever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fast forward to early 1987. A sharp analyst at Shearson Lehman named Elaine Garzarelli called for a 20% market correction. She nailed it. On Black Monday, October 19, the Dow fell 22% in a single day. Except for maybe the first few weeks, there was little to be heard about Elaine G. after that. Nobody wanted to touch her. She quietly started her own advisory firm a few years later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The connection \u2014 and the point \u2014 is simple: NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR ABOUT NEGATIVITY. That leads to dangerous complacency which threatens your financial well-being even if you\u2019re aware of it, because when reality finally asserts itself, it drags down prices of assets that may not deserve it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    You could cut the January complacency in the market with a dull butter knife, so be careful. Investors continue to pile into ETFs, indexes, meme stocks, and AI even as asset prices come down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And speaking of mass complacency, I\u2019d like to mention the curious case of a company called Amphenol Corporation (APH), whose stock has garnered sustained investor enthusiasm over the past couple of years despite massive insider selling every step of the way. Frankly, the fund I manage has also lost money shorting what I view as a Ponzi-like company along the way. We are not currently short the stock and probably will not ever be again, but I feel like talking about it today and advancing a warning for anyone who might be tempted to buy it or hold it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    One can argue that a publicly traded company has a fiduciary obligation to do whatever it can, within the law, to maximize shareholder value and support its stock price. However, in this author\u2019s opinion, Amphenol has pursued acquisition after acquisition\u2014largely to keep analysts and investors off balance\u2014while reporting steadily rising earnings and EBITDA, all alongside insiders selling down nearly all of their holdings. Many of these acquisitions were small, publicly traded companies that had gone nowhere for years. Perhaps Amphenol is simply the greatest corporate integrator we\u2019ve ever seen. But when one examines the scale of insider selling over the past couple of years, it is hard not to question how much confidence management truly has in the company\u2019s core business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The theme here is discipline. Focus on value names with well-established and important businesses. We\u2019ve blogged some suggested names in previous posts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In Closing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    *The Dinosaur* doesn\u2019t roar, it rumbles quietly, patiently, confidently. When the tide turns\u2014as it always does\u2014those who held to discipline, valuation, and patience will be well rewarded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Until next time,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u2014The Editor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \ud83e\udd95 The Dinosaur Issue 9 Old-Fashioned Stock-Picking for Modern Markets February 6, 2026 From the Editor PLEASE NOTE:  On February 2, 1985, my friend and fellow gambling junkie Howard G….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-65","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-uncategorized"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Screenshot-2026-02-11-at-12.51.21-PM-600x400.png","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Screenshot-2026-02-11-at-12.51.21-PM-600x600.png","author_info":{"display_name":"levit","author_link":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/?author=1"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/66"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leviticuspartners.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}