🦕 The Dinosaur
Issue 9
Old-Fashioned Stock-Picking for Modern Markets
February 6, 2026
From the Editor
PLEASE NOTE:
- Any discussions or information shared in this conversation about stocks or potential trades are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
- Before making investment decisions, individuals are responsible for their own research and consulting with a qualified financial advisor.
- We, or our affiliates, may have positions in the stocks mentioned, potentially influencing our opinion.
- You should not buy equities unless you are prepared to sustain a total loss of the money you have invested plus any commission or other transaction charges.
On February 2, 1985, my friend and fellow gambling junkie Howard G. tracked me down at the apartment of my Syracuse girlfriend to tell me not to ask questions and to bet the house on Southern Mississippi +9 points versus Tulane in men’s basketball that evening. I did as advised and won the bet when Tulane won the game by one point.
Two weeks later came another similar call and another winning bet — this time on Memphis State, again versus Tulane.
Months later the scandal hit the news. Tulane star John “Hot Rod” Williams was indicted, along with members of a certain Tulane fraternity that had allegedly sent frat members or pledges to Las Vegas with something like $80,000 in cash to place bets against their own team.
The irony is that I’d been telling friends since 1980 that “where there’s gambling, there’s fixing,” and yet some of them still rib me to this very day — despite everything since: the 2002 Sacramento Kings, the 2019 Saints–Rams, and oh so many NBA and NFL games with suspicious calls and whistles.
The old-fashioned point shaving — players, referees, and the mob — has seemingly evolved into something more sophisticated, possibly even including league-level collusion with gambling houses. Kinda sad. But whatever.
Fast forward to early 1987. A sharp analyst at Shearson Lehman named Elaine Garzarelli called for a 20% market correction. She nailed it. On Black Monday, October 19, the Dow fell 22% in a single day. Except for maybe the first few weeks, there was little to be heard about Elaine G. after that. Nobody wanted to touch her. She quietly started her own advisory firm a few years later.
The connection — and the point — is simple: NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR ABOUT NEGATIVITY. That leads to dangerous complacency which threatens your financial well-being even if you’re aware of it, because when reality finally asserts itself, it drags down prices of assets that may not deserve it.
You could cut the January complacency in the market with a dull butter knife, so be careful. Investors continue to pile into ETFs, indexes, meme stocks, and AI even as asset prices come down.
And speaking of mass complacency, I’d like to mention the curious case of a company called Amphenol Corporation (APH), whose stock has garnered sustained investor enthusiasm over the past couple of years despite massive insider selling every step of the way. Frankly, the fund I manage has also lost money shorting what I view as a Ponzi-like company along the way. We are not currently short the stock and probably will not ever be again, but I feel like talking about it today and advancing a warning for anyone who might be tempted to buy it or hold it.
One can argue that a publicly traded company has a fiduciary obligation to do whatever it can, within the law, to maximize shareholder value and support its stock price. However, in this author’s opinion, Amphenol has pursued acquisition after acquisition—largely to keep analysts and investors off balance—while reporting steadily rising earnings and EBITDA, all alongside insiders selling down nearly all of their holdings. Many of these acquisitions were small, publicly traded companies that had gone nowhere for years. Perhaps Amphenol is simply the greatest corporate integrator we’ve ever seen. But when one examines the scale of insider selling over the past couple of years, it is hard not to question how much confidence management truly has in the company’s core business.
The theme here is discipline. Focus on value names with well-established and important businesses. We’ve blogged some suggested names in previous posts.
In Closing
*The Dinosaur* doesn’t roar, it rumbles quietly, patiently, confidently. When the tide turns—as it always does—those who held to discipline, valuation, and patience will be well rewarded.
Until next time,
—The Editor
